2018 Tournament of Nations Scenarios: Who Can Take Home the Title?​​​​‌‍​‍​‍‌‍‌​‍‌‍‍‌‌‍‌‌‍‍‌‌‍‍​‍​‍​‍‍​‍​‍‌​‌‍​‌‌‍‍‌‍‍‌‌‌​‌‍‌​‍‍‌‍‍‌‌‍​‍​‍​‍​​‍​‍‌‍‍​‌​‍‌‍‌‌‌‍‌‍​‍​‍​‍‍​‍​‍‌‍‍​‌‌​‌‌​‌​​‌​​‍‍​‍​‍‌‌‌‌​‌​‌‍‌‍​‍‍‌​‌‍​‌‌‍‍‌‍‍‌‌‌​‌‍‌​‍‍‌​‌‌​‌‌‌‌‍‌​‌‍‍‌‌‍​‍‌‍‍‌‌‍‍‌‌​‌‍‌‌‌‍‍‌‌​​‍‌‍‌‌‌‍‌​‌‍‍‌‌‌​​‍‌‍‌‌‍‌‍‌​‌‍‌‌​‌‌​​‌​‍‌‍‌‌‌​‌‍‌‌‌‍‍‌‌​‌‍​‌‌‌​‌‍‍‌‌‍‌‍‍​‍‌‍‍‌‌‍‌​​‌‌​​‌​‌‍​‌‌‍‍‌‍​‌‍‍​​​‌‍​‍‌‍​‍‌‍‍‌‍‍​‌‍​‌‌​‍​‌‌​‍‌​​‌​​‌​‌‌​‌‍‌‍‌​‍‌​‌​​‍‌‌​‌‍‌‌​​‌‍‌‌​‌‌​‌‌​‌‍‌​‍‌‍‌​‍‌​​‌‍​‌‌‌​‌‍‍​​‌‌‍​‌‍‌‍‍‌‌​‌‍‌‌‌‍‍‌‌​​‍‌‌​‌‌‌​​‍‌‌‌‍‍‌‍‌‌‌‍‌​‍‌‌​​‌​‌​​‍‌‌​​‌​‌​​‍‌‌​​‍​​‍‌‌‌‌‌‌‍​‌‍​‌‍‌​‌‌‍​‌‌​‌‌​​​​‌‌​​‌‌‍‌‍​‌‍‌‍​‍‌‌‍‍‌‍​​​‍‌​‌​‌​‍​‍​‌​​‌​​‍‌‍​​‍‌‌​​‍​​‍​‍‌‌​‌‌‌​‌​​‍‍‌‍‍​‌‍‌‌‌‍​‌‌‍‌​‌‍‍‌‌‍‍‌‍‌​‌‍​‍‌‍​‌‌​‌‍‌‌‌‌‌‌‌​‍‌‍​​‌‌‍‍​‌‌​‌‌​‌​​‌​​‍‌‌​​‌​​‌​‍‌‌​​‍‌​‌‍​‍‌‌​​‍‌​‌‍‌‌‌‌​‌​‌‍‌‍​‍‍‌​‌‍​‌‌‍‍‌‍‍‌‌‌​‌‍‌​‍‍‌​‌‌​‌‌‌‌‍‌​‌‍‍‌‌‍​‍‌‍‌‍‍‌‌‍‌​​‌‌​​‌​‌‍​‌‌‍‍‌‍​‌‍‍​​​‌‍​‍‌‍​‍‌‍‍‌‍‍​‌‍​‌‌​‍​‌‌​‍‌​​‌​​‌​‌‌​‌‍‌‍‌​‍‌​‌​​‍‌‍‌‌​‌‍‌‌​​‌‍‌‌​‌‌​‌‌​‌‍‌​‍‌‍‌​‍‌‍‌​​‌‍​‌‌‌​‌‍‍​​‌‌‍​‌‍‌‍‍‌‌​‌‍‌‌‌‍‍‌‌​​‍‌‌​‌‌‌​​‍‌‌‌‍‍‌‍‌‌‌‍‌​‍‌‌​​‌​‌​​‍‌‌​​‌​‌​​‍‌‌​​‍​​‍‌‌‌‌‌‌‍​‌‍​‌‍‌​‌‌‍​‌‌​‌‌​​​​‌‌​​‌‌‍‌‍​‌‍‌‍​‍‌‌‍‍‌‍​​​‍‌​‌​‌​‍​‍​‌​​‌​​‍‌‍​​‍‌‌​​‍​​‍​‍‌‌​‌‌‌​‌​​‍‍‌‍‍​‌‍‌‌‌‍​‌‌‍‌​‌‍‍‌‌‍‍‌‍‌​‍​‍‌‌

The closing day of the 2018 Tournament of Nations will feature Australia vs. Japan (4:45 p.m. CT; ussoccer.com) in the first fixture of the day, followed by USA vs. Brazil (7:30 p.m. CT; FS1), with three of the four teams still vying for the tournament title.

Match Day 2 of the 2018 Tournament of Nations featured dramatic results on the field and brought into focus several scenarios for a thrilling final matchday on Thursday, Aug. 2 in Bridgeview, Illinois.

Australia, Brazil and the USA are all still in contention for the Tournament title, with only Japan eliminated after losing its first two games.

2018 Tournament of Nations Standings

Team	GP	W	L	T	GF	GA	GD	Pts.
USA	2	1	0	1	5	3	+2	4
Australia	2	1	0	1	4	2	+2	4
Brazil	2	1	1	0	3	4	-1	3
Japan	2	0	2	0	3	6	-3	0

The USA and Australia are level with 4 points each and the same goal differential of +2. However, the USA sits atop the standings, having scored more goals (5) than Australia (4). Yet third-place Brazil’s crucial 2-1 win against Japan on July 29 gave the South Americans three points and a shot at winning the tournament - but they will need help.

Here are all scenarios for each team to be able to lift the 2018 Tournament of Nations trophy:

JAPAN
The recent champions of the AFC Women's Asian Cup are without a point from their first two matches and therefore cannot add to their trophy haul, but the team has an opportunity to play a real part in deciding the champion, as a win in Thursday's opening match will make it impossible for Australia to capture the title and a draw could put a significant dent in the Aussies' aspirations.

BRAZIL
Despite sitting third in the standings, Brazil still has a chance to take the tournament title with a win against the USA - but for that outcome to remain possible, Japan must keep Australia from taking three points in the opener of Thursday's doubleheader.

If Australia defeats Japan to avenge its loss in this rematch of the 2018 AFC Women's Asian Cup Final, Brazil will be eliminated from contention and will be playing for pride against the Yanks, and possibly some redemption after surrendering a two-goal lead in the final nine minutes of their 2017 Tournament of Nations matchup with the U.S. 

If Australia draws or loses in the first match of the day, then Brazil can crown itself champion for the first time with a win against the USA. That would put Brazil atop the standings at six points, with the U.S. staying at four, Australia with no more than five, and Japan at no more than three.

A draw in the USA-Brazil match would not allow Brazil to climb to the top of the table, as they would remain behind the hosts (and possibly Australia as well).

AUSTRALIA
Australia can repeat as Tournament of Nations champion with a win against Japan and a U.S. loss or tie with Brazil. If both Australia and the USA win, then the Aussies will need to achieve a margin of victory greater than the Americans in order to claim the edge in goal difference or remain tied on goal difference but surpass the Americans in goals scored.

If both teams win by the same margin, but Australia scores one more goal than the USA, the U.S. and Australia would be tied on points, goal differential, goals scored, and head-to-head, meaning the next tiebreaker would be the FIFA ranking, which the USA would win due to its No. 1 ranking.

USA
Since Australia faces Japan in the first game on the tournament’s final match day, the USA will know prior to its clash with Brazil what result it needs to win the Tournament of Nations for the first time.

If both the USA and Australia win, that will give both teams seven points; therefore, to finish first, the USA will need to compile a superior goal difference, or if tied in that first tiebreaker, maintain its edge in total goals scored.

The USA can win the tournament with a tie, but only if Australia and Japan tie (and the USA maintains its edge in goals scored), or if Australia loses to Japan.

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